CME FedWatch Data Indicates Over 67% Probability of Federal Reserve Rate Hike This Year
2026-05-24 20:44

Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that CME FedWatch metrics assign a 32.1% probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates through December.

Concurrently, the market prices in a 42.5% likelihood of a cumulative 25 basis point increase, alongside a 20.6% chance of a 50 basis point hike.

Further probabilities include a 4.4% chance of a 75 basis point cumulative increase and a marginal 0.4% for a 100 basis point rise. This distribution underscores a dominant market consensus favoring rate adjustments over policy stability.

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