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Woofun AI notes that Boston College economics professor Brian Bethune has publicly questioned the reliability of the trimmed mean PCE inflation measure, a metric favored by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for its exclusion of extreme values. Bethune argues that while the indicator performs adequately during balanced inflation shocks, such as those seen between 2009 and 2019, it systematically underestimates inflation when price pressures stem from positive supply-side disruptions, including tariffs, surging oil prices, or major events like the World Cup.
This academic critique emerges against a backdrop where U.S. inflation has remained stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target since the spring of 2021. Bethune explicitly called for challenges to Powell's stance on this specific gauge, suggesting that reliance on the trimmed mean may obscure the true extent of current price pressures driven by asymmetric supply shocks.