Per Woofun AI, market attention has pivoted from the Middle East conflict to capital reallocation following peace agreements. With the US and Iran set to sign a memorandum of understanding and the Hormuz Strait reopening, oil prices have retreated while equities rose.

However, shipping giants like Mitsui O.S.K. Lines remain cautious, indicating that while risk events are receding, the risk premium persists as supply chain normalization is verified.

Macro trends reveal three intersecting forces: lower energy costs easing inflation expectations, the Bank of Japan raising rates to a 31-year high while curbing bond purchases, and the Fed shifting from rate cut hopes to 'higher for longer' narratives. Consequently, markets are trading the repricing of global funding costs rather than loose liquidity. Despite this, capital flows remain robust, with SpaceX raising $85.7 billion, NVIDIA issuing $20 billion in bonds, and BlackRock noting $8 to $9 trillion moving from money market funds to risk assets. This influx into AI and tech sectors has accumulated valuation risks, with over 70% of economists predicting a >20% US stock pullback within a year.

For the crypto market, improved risk sentiment from peace dividends and falling oil prices provides support. Yet, the upcoming FOMC meeting poses a risk if Powell signals inflation control or balance sheet reduction.

Concurrently, SpaceX's IPO, Triple Witching Day, and S&P 500 rebalancing may amplify volatility. In this environment, BTC serves less as a leading asset and more as an indicator of global risk appetite, testing whether high-rate valuations can be sustained by real cash flows.