Data compiled by Woofun AI shows Castle Securities Chief Macro Strategist Frank Flight forecasting a cumulative 75 basis point interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve within the year, with tightening potentially commencing in September. This projection stems from entrenched inflationary pressures fueled by loose financial conditions, supply chain bottlenecks, labor market strength, and surging artificial intelligence investments. Although recent Middle East de-escalation lowered oil prices, structural inflation expectations remain elevated.

Flight anticipates new Fed Chair Kevin Wash will adopt a hawkish posture at his inaugural policy meeting, potentially overturning market bets on a September rate cut. Castle Securities expects the June meeting to strip dovish rhetoric and update the dot plot, with officials likely raising inflation forecasts above 3% while lowering unemployment projections. Aligning with Taylor Rule calculations, the firm identifies July as a potential signal window for policy shifts.

Concurrently, a Duke University survey reveals that most former Fed officials support further hikes to combat energy shocks and high inflation, despite concerns over a potential summer economic slowdown.