Woofun AI notes that HTX Research analyst Chloe identifies a pivotal shift in crypto market dynamics, moving from price rebounds to repricing the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory. The imminent FOMC rate decision and dot plot are viewed as critical determinants for short-term risk assets. While the market anticipates the Fed will maintain the 3.50% to 3.75% interest rate range, the primary concern lies in whether the dot plot eliminates further rate cuts for 2026 or signals potential hikes. This transition from a 'waiting for rate cuts' narrative to a framework of sustained higher rates poses significant headwinds for crypto assets, which have recently relied on liquidity improvement bets for their valuation support.

The macroeconomic backdrop remains complex, with robust job growth and rising energy prices due to the Iran conflict fueling inflationary pressures. Consequently, the Fed's internal debate has shifted from timing rate cuts to assessing if current rates sufficiently contain inflation, a stance that directly dampens risk appetite. BTC may exhibit short-term downside resilience as a core liquidity asset, but its upside is constrained by real interest rates and USD liquidity.

Meanwhile, ETH and major altcoins remain highly sensitive to risk sentiment; any rise in U.S. bond yields or dollar strength could trigger further outflows from high-volatility assets.

Additionally, the tone of Warsh's inaugural press conference will be crucial. A hawkish stance emphasizing inflation risks could spark deleveraging, whereas a moderate approach might allow for a weak rebound, contingent on genuine disinflation data.