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Woofun AI reports that major financial institutions are anticipating a hawkish adjustment in the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot. UBS and Goldman Sachs project that the median forecast will delay rate cuts until 2028, reflecting upward revisions in inflation expectations and a persistent tight policy stance. Barclays and BNY Mellon align with this view, suggesting rates will remain unchanged throughout 2026, while PIMCO notes potential for rate hike forecasts despite a steady median.
Market focus also centers on whether new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will submit a personal dot plot forecast. Goldman Sachs, Capital Economics, TD Securities, and Bank of America predict Warsh may abstain, viewing it as a strategic move to minimize hawkish signals or reflecting his skepticism of forward guidance. Conversely, JPMorgan argues that withholding a forecast would signal dissent against the committee he leads. Jefferies highlights Warsh's Senate hearing comments opposing forward guidance, which could result in a shorter FOMC statement and reduced SEP details.