FedWatch Data Shows Market Shifts Toward Higher Interest Rate Hike Probabilities Following Federal Reserve Decision
2026-06-18 03:53

Data compiled by Woofun AI from CME FedWatch indicates a substantial recalibration of market expectations following the Federal Reserve's latest policy announcement. The probability of the central bank maintaining current interest rates through July dropped to 64%, down from 91% prior to the decision.

Concurrently, the likelihood of a cumulative 25 basis point hike surged to 35.1% from 8.9%, while the chance of a 50 basis point increase emerged at 1%, up from zero.

Looking toward December, the outlook for unchanged rates retreated to 14.2% from 38.2%. The market now assigns a 36.4% probability to a cumulative 25 basis point hike and a 33.8% probability to a 50 basis point hike.

Notably, the odds of a 75 basis point increase jumped to 13.5% from 2.4%, and the probability of a 100 basis point hike rose to 2.1% from 0.1%, reflecting heightened anticipation for aggressive tightening measures.

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