Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that derivatives pricing assigns a 41% probability to SpaceX surpassing Nvidia to become the world's most valuable company by the end of 2028. Following its Nasdaq listing with a $2.6 trillion valuation, SpaceX secured the fifth position globally, currently vying with Amazon for ranking supremacy.

To displace Apple and Alphabet, both exceeding $4.4 trillion in market capitalization, SpaceX shares would need to appreciate approximately 70% to reach $340. The options market prices this milestone at a 50% probability by July 2028.

Meanwhile, the likelihood of overtaking Nvidia stands at 38% by June 2028. This pricing structure indicates that despite robust growth narratives, the market views the path to the top valuation tier as a high-uncertainty, long-cycle event.