Howard Marks Warns Risk Aversion May Cause Investors to Miss Historic AI Opportunities
2026-06-18 22:43

Woofun AI reports that Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital, cautioned that excessive risk aversion may cause investors to overlook what he terms the greatest investment opportunity in history. Speaking on a podcast, Marks observed that the current market prosperity makes it difficult to discern whether valuations have become irrational. He cited SpaceX's impending listing at a near $2 trillion valuation as an example where calculating a reasonable IPO price is nearly impossible. Marks emphasized that those who remain on the sidelines due to fear will likely fail to achieve significant returns, whereas traditional industry investors may struggle to capture epoch-making dividends.

Regarding market metrics, Marks noted that the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio stands at approximately 23 times. This figure exceeds the 80-year average of 16 times but remains below the 32 times recorded during the 2000 internet bubble. In the context of artificial intelligence, he characterized investing in hyperscale technology companies as a lower-risk strategy. Conversely, allocating capital to vertical AI firms such as Anthropic and OpenAI involves higher risk but offers a superior survival rate. He likened investing in early-stage startups to purchasing a lottery ticket, highlighting the variance in potential outcomes across different risk profiles.

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Howard Marks
SpaceX
Anthropic
OpenAI
Oak Tree
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