Federal Reserve July Rate Hold Probability Stands At 60.4% Amid Rising Hike Odds
2026-06-19 06:38

Data compiled by Woofun AI from CME's 'FedWatch' tool reveals that the market assigns a 60.4% probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged during its July meeting.

Concurrently, traders price in a 39.6% likelihood of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points for the same period.

Looking further ahead, expectations for monetary tightening intensify significantly. By September, the probability of a rate hold retreats to 31.2%, while the odds of a 25 basis point hike rise to 49.6%.

Additionally, there is a 19.1% probability priced in for a more aggressive 50 basis point cumulative increase, reflecting growing market sentiment toward a hawkish policy trajectory.

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