Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the market probability for 'Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers before July 1' on Polymarket has climbed to 73%, marking a 33% increase over the last 24 hours. The market settlement criteria specify that access must be granted via public beta or waitlist; private testing does not qualify. Settlement relies on official Anthropic announcements or mainstream media consensus.

This shift in sentiment follows Anthropic's abrupt suspension of global access to Claude Fable 5 on June 9, triggered by US export controls citing national security concerns. Although restrictions targeted foreign users, identity screening challenges forced a blanket ban, routing traffic to less capable models like Opus 4.8. Anthropic is currently negotiating with the White House regarding model capabilities and jailbreak risks, asserting the ban may result from a misunderstanding.