Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal conditions before June 30 has retreated to 9% on Polymarket, marking a 9% decline within 24 hours.

Concurrently, total trading volume for this specific geopolitical event has surpassed $28 million, reflecting heightened market scrutiny on regional stability.

Meanwhile, diplomatic tensions remain acute as Hezbollah and Israel engage in intense clashes in southern Lebanon. Ibrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the Iranian Parliament, declared that a ceasefire in Lebanon constitutes a red line for Iran, which will not concede on related matters. Rezaei emphasized that Iran views its relationship with the United States as currently hostile and is preparing for two distinct scenarios, including the possibility of another war. While asserting that Iran acts based on its own considerations rather than trusting US statements, he added that Tehran continues to pursue negotiation and diplomatic channels.