Monitored by Woofun AI, a trader known as betwick deployed $144.4k on Polymarket to wager on the normalization of ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by July, entering at an average probability of 14.1%. The current 'Yes' probability stands at 7.5%, while the trader maintains a $239k net profit in the Iran category with a 64% win rate across settled trades. This investment magnitude is 100.4 times the median historical amount for similar cost ranges.

PortWatch data indicates actual vessel traffic remains significantly below the market's settlement trigger of 60. Although the U.S. Central Command reported 55 commercial vessels passing through on June 20, single-day spikes do not satisfy the 7-day moving average requirement. Compounding uncertainty, GPS interference and AIS spoofing persist. Major carriers like Maersk and Mitsui O.S.K Lines continue to delay full resumption pending definitive security assurances, suggesting the trader's position may reflect strategic risk management rather than a bullish outlook on immediate normalization.