Woofun AI reports that global market attention has pivoted from Middle East geopolitical tensions toward monetary policy shifts and liquidity revaluation. While US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland have established a high-level oversight committee and a 60-day roadmap, persistent gaps regarding Lebanon and oil sanctions keep the Strait of Hormuz from fully normalizing.

Concurrently, energy markets are pricing in supply recovery, with Libyan crude production reaching its highest level since 2013, Iraq planning a return to pre-conflict capacity, and Qatar preparing to restart LNG exports. This transition replaces war-driven supply shocks with a narrative of supply normalization.

The primary driver of current market pricing is the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory under new Chair Kevin Warsh, whose dilution of forward guidance and dot plot has heightened uncertainty. Rate markets have priced in a 25 basis-point hike for September, while Goldman Sachs has lowered its gold target and forecasts no rate cuts this year. Capital is rotating back into the dollar system, evidenced by climbing Treasury yields, a strengthening dollar index, and the unwinding of global carry trades.

Meanwhile, following the Bank of Japan's rate hike, the Japanese Ministry of Finance has warned against FX speculation, signaling a broader trend of tightening policy among major central banks. For crypto assets, the critical variable is no longer geopolitical risk but the liquidity pressure from rising global capital costs, shifting the focus to whether new liquidity sources can emerge amid 'higher rates for longer' expectations.