J.P. Morgan reports that global semiconductor storage prices could exceed market expectations due to aggressive capacity securing by cloud computing giants and limited production ramp-ups by major chipmakers. In a report released on June 21, the bank cited industry experts forecasting a 40% to 50% quarter-over-quarter price increase in Q3 2026, followed by another 30% to 40% rise in Q4, significantly outpacing prior estimates of 15% to 20%.

This supply-demand imbalance stems from AI-driven demand, with cloud providers locking in roughly 50% of industry capacity through long-term agreements, potentially rising to 70%. Consequently, the global storage bit supply (excluding Chinese manufacturers) is projected to grow by only 7% to 8% in 2026, resulting in a DRAM and NAND supply gap of 150,000 to 200,000 wafers per month. While HBM capacity may reach 480,000 wafers monthly by 2027, prices could still surge around 70%. J.P. Morgan notes that Chinese manufacturers like Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. remain technologically behind in DRAM, limiting their impact on the high-end market until at least 2028, though cyclical risks may emerge if AI demand slows amid expanded wafer capacity.