Per Woofun AI, Morgan Stanley disclosed that robust ETF inflows constitute the pivotal variable required for gold to attain its $5,200 price target in the second half of the year. The firm emphasized that while central bank accumulation may persist, ETF flows exhibit greater sensitivity to shifts in interest rate expectations, real yields, and US dollar strength.

Concurrently, Morgan Stanley maintains a constructive long-term stance on gold, citing alleviated inflation concerns stemming from de-escalating Middle East tensions and declining oil prices.

However, the Federal Reserve's recent hawkish posture has reinforced expectations of prolonged elevated interest rates, thereby increasing the opportunity cost for holding non-yielding assets like gold.