Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that Grayscale's Director of Research Zach Pandl posits a potential uptrend for Bitcoin contingent on the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate increases. Since the onset of the Iran conflict in late February, US equities have surged by 9%, while Bitcoin has declined by 1% and gold has retreated by 20%. This divergence persists despite robust AI-driven spending supporting stocks, largely due to market anticipation of Fed tightening to curb inflation. Grayscale challenges this narrative, maintaining a base case where rate hikes are postponed, which could allow Bitcoin to converge with equity market performance.

Concurrently, the 1-year Federal Reserve interest rate outlook has widened by approximately 60 basis points since the conflict began, with roughly half of Fed officials viewing 2026 rate hikes as appropriate. The European Central Bank has already implemented rate increases. As non-interest-bearing assets, Bitcoin and gold compete against fiat currencies; rising real interest rates elevate the opportunity cost of holding these assets, thereby suppressing demand. Bitcoin functions dually as a scarce digital store of value and a public blockchain asset offering exposure to crypto industry growth. If the probability of rate hikes diminishes in line with Grayscale's assessment, Bitcoin is positioned to catch up with stock market returns.