Wintermute reports that the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50%-3.75% while projecting a median 2026 rate of 3.8%, up from 3.4%. This hawkish pivot drove the probability of a December hike to 77%, signaling a renewed focus on curbing inflation.

Concurrently, the suspension of the Iran agreement following Israel's strike on Lebanon forced markets to reassess geopolitical risk premiums. Although Strategy disclosed a purchase of 1587 BTC, Wintermute observes that ETF and institutional buying interest has not significantly recovered. With attention now on U.S. PCE data and Middle East negotiations, risk assets are likely to remain in a range-bound consolidation phase until fund flows improve.