Woofun AI data shows that MicroStrategy's MSTR has declined 78% from its peak, while Bitcoin has dropped 51%. The average cost basis for 847,363 BTC holdings stands at $75,651, with a total cost of $64.1 billion. Current BTC prices have fallen below this cost line for the first time since the 2022 bear market. The divergence between MSTR and BTC performance has widened by approximately 28 percentage points, nearing historical upper bounds but remaining above the 89% retracement low seen in 2022.

MicroStrategy has shifted to a defensive purchasing strategy, reducing weekly BTC acquisition volume by roughly two-thirds. Less than 11% of the $335.5 million raised via stock issuance was used for BTC purchases, with the remainder allocated to dollar reserves. In late May, the company executed its first net sale since 2022, offloading 32 BTC to cover STRC dividends. Primary risks involve BTC staying below the $75,000 treasury cost line, which could compress the MSTR premium and hinder ATM issuance financing.

However, with nearly all debt structured as convertible bonds, margin risk is minimal. The baseline scenario involves losing marginal buyers rather than facing cascading liquidations, though pressure may mount if the company transitions from equity sales to systematically selling BTC for preferred dividends and interest payments.