Woofun AI reports that a new account placed a $4,900 "No" position on Polymarket regarding whether Russia will occupy Kostyantynivka by June 30, purchasing at an average probability of 79.4%. The market currently prices the "Yes" outcome at 10.4%.

Settlement rules specify that Russian control must be confirmed via ISW maps for the railway station on Pravoberezhna Street, excluding mere presence. On the 25th, Ukrainian forces repelled 11 Russian attacks in the area, with no new firm control points established. Major General Viktor Nikoliuk stated that defense resources remain sufficient and the city is not encircled, noting that current engagements do not indicate a stable occupation front.