Woofun AI data shows that Bitcoin’s net realized profit and loss (90-day MA) has remained negative for five consecutive months, currently standing at -203.2 million USD. This metric indicates systematic loss realization, a pattern observed in early bear market phases. Holder cost basis analysis identifies a core support zone between $48,000 and $56,000. Whales holding over 10,000 coins have a cost basis of $48,100, while small addresses with 10-100 coins average $47,800. Large wallets containing 1,000-10,000 coins show a basis of $56,500. All these groups remain below the current price, indicating profitability. Conversely, the 100-1,000 coin cohort, with a cost basis of $65,700, is currently underwater and constitutes the primary source of sell-side pressure. Unlike the 2022 capitulation where nearly all segments fell below cost, the current structure suggests a controlled decline. The primary risk involves a breach of the $48,000-$56,000 support band, which would force additional holders into negative equity and expand downside potential.