Woofun AI notes that analyst Murphy applies the 'Post-Halving MVRV Z-Score' framework to assess Bitcoin market dynamics. The current cycle exhibits compressed volatility, with BTC trading within an MVRV range of 1.12 to 1.30, corresponding to prices between $59,000 and $70,000.

Murphy indicates that BTC is near the lower channel boundary around $59,000, suggesting a weak rebound or oscillation before July 23rd. The probability of testing $50,000 is low, while any rally is capped near $69,000-$70,000. From a mid-term view, the true bottoming retracement is anticipated on or after July 23rd, aligning with traditional four-year cycle logic pointing to September or October. Prices below $60,000 are viewed as cheap, yet large-scale bottom fishing is not advised. The market is characterized by range-bound oscillation, with heightened caution recommended from late July through August.