BIS Outlines Four AI Scenarios Where Demand Bottlenecks Constrain Growth
2026-06-29 11:30

Woofun AI reports that the Bank for International Settlements outlines four potential AI development paths: status quo maintenance, limited productivity gains, demand bottlenecks, and transformative AI. The research suggests that while transformative AI could elevate economic growth and natural interest rates above historical levels, progress may stall if automation reduces labor income shares. In the "demand bottleneck" scenario, weak consumer demand fails to match expanded production capacity, leading firms to curtail AI investment and making end-demand the primary constraint on long-term growth rather than technological capability.

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BIS
Bank for International Settlements
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