Woofun AI reports that Galaxy Research has reduced the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to 50%, down from 60% three weeks prior. This adjustment reflects a congested Senate calendar, the absence of a published merged bill text, no scheduled votes, and no public endorsement from leadership.

The legislation, which cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 with a 15-9 vote, remains item 423 on the calendar without a motion to advance. A voting schedule must be announced by early July to avoid an August recess delay, which would push proceedings into September amid midterm election pressures. Competing priorities like FISA Section 702 and the NDAA, alongside Trump's housing bill veto, intensify scheduling constraints. Unresolved ethical provisions and expected opposition from at least two Republicans make Democratic support critical. Passage odds could rise above 60% if leadership commits to a July vote within two weeks; otherwise, they may decline further.