Woofun AI reports that Bitcoin has retraced over 50% from its October 2025 peak of approximately $125,000, falling below $60,000. Grayscale attributes this decline to Federal Reserve hawkishness, "CLARITY Act" uncertainty, Strategy's leverage pressure, and quantum computing concerns. The firm views this as a cyclical adjustment rather than a trend reversal, noting that institutional funding stability may prevent an 80% drawdown.

Market analysts converge on a bottoming phase between July and October. Liquid Capital founder Yihan Li identifies July-August as the final positioning window, with $51,000 to $43,000 representing extreme pressure levels based on 60%-66% retracement. Analyst Murphy cites MVRV Z-Score data suggesting a reasonable range of $59,000 to $70,000, with significant downside below $50,000 deemed unlikely before late August.