Fed Rate Hike Probability Drops to 20% After Weak Payrolls
2026-07-02 20:51

Woofun AI data shows that US Treasury bond prices increased following the release of weaker-than-expected nonfarm payroll figures. The yield on the two-year Treasury note declined six basis points to 4.11%, while the 10-year note yield dropped two basis points to 4.46%. Interest rate swap markets now assign a 20% probability to a rate hike at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, a decrease from the 33% probability observed prior to the data release. Current market expectations indicate fewer than two rate hikes, each capped at 25 basis points, by March 2027. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 last month, significantly missing the Bloomberg median estimate of 113,000, while previous two months' figures were revised downward. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.2%, driven by a sharp decline in the labor force participation rate.

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