Woofun AI reports that UBS has elevated its DDR contract price benchmarks to a 32% QoQ rise in Q3 2026 and an 18% increase in Q4 2026, surpassing prior estimates of 17% and 12%. The bank maintains that DRAM supply constraints will persist until at least 2028, with the demand-supply gap widening to 17% by 2027.

Under a scenario with no downstream inventory digestion in 2027, the shortage ratio is projected to deteriorate from 8.1% in 2026 to 13.6% in 2027, levels UBS describes as unprecedented in the last 30 years. For NAND, UBS forecasts a 30% QoQ price jump in Q3 2026 and a 12% rise in Q4 2026, expecting the upcycle to continue through Q4 2027. Memory industry revenue projections have been raised to $992 billion for 2026 and $1.763 trillion for 2027, with key risks tied to hyperscale cloud providers' capital expenditure financing.