Woofun AI data shows that a Polymarket participant deployed $14.7k on the "No" outcome for a US-Iran nuclear deal by August 31, 2026, when the "Yes" probability stood at 22.0%. This trader, known for a 64% win rate in geopolitics, acts as negotiations shift from a 60-day window to crisis management following Trump's announcement of strikes and the revocation of Iran's oil sale waivers.