Fed July Rate Hike Probability Drops to 20% as CPI Misses Expectations
2026-07-14 20:53

Woofun AI reports that U.S. consumer price index figures arrived below market forecasts, prompting traders to significantly reduce expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate increase. Consequently, U.S. Treasury prices surged, driving the two-year yield down by 14 basis points to 4.14%, its steepest single-day decline since February.

Interest rate swap markets now price in only a 20% chance of a July rate hike, down from over 40% previously. Dan Carter, senior portfolio manager at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, stated: "This is a broad-based miss on the data. The possibility of a near-term rate hike is now off the table."

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Dan Carter
Fort Washington Investment Advisors
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