Woofun AI reports that Polymarket has introduced a prediction market titled "When will the US and Iran achieve a two-week ceasefire." Current probabilities indicate a 5% chance for July 18, rising to 15% for July 24, 23% for July 31, 43% for August 14, and 54% for August 31. Settlement rules define a "Yes" outcome if no qualifying US military action occurs against Iran within a 14-day window ending at 11:59 PM on the specified date. Qualifying actions include direct airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile strikes, excluding intercepted munitions, cyber operations, or unexecuted threats.