Bitcoin Short-Term Cost Basis Falls Below Long-Term, Triggering Bear Market End Signal
2026-07-19 10:33

Woofun AI data shows that Bitcoin short-term holders' cost basis has declined from $112,500 to $69,000, falling below the adjusted long-term holders' cost basis. This crossover utilizes a 3-day confirmation window to compare average purchase prices between investors holding for less than 6 months and those holding for more than 6 months. The adjusted long-term metric excludes Bitcoin held for over 7 years to mitigate the impact of dormant supply. While this shift in holding structure points to the late stage of a bear market, it does not confirm a market bottom or the onset of a new bull cycle. A reversal where short-term costs rise above long-term levels would align with historical bull market confirmation signals.

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Bitcoin
CryptoQuant
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