Woofun AI reports that Mizuho Securities USA analyst Dan Dolev downgraded Circle’s rating from "Neutral" to "Underperform the Market", setting a target price of $50. This valuation implies an 18% decline from recent closing levels, significantly underperforming the Bloomberg-compiled average target of $123. Dolev cites intensifying competition from the Open Standard project, backed by entities including Visa, Stripe, Coinbase, and BlackRock, which aims to issue OUSD. The analyst argues that OUSD’s revenue-sharing model and lower fees could erode Circle’s margins, particularly as Circle relies on USDC reserve interest.

Additionally, Dolev projects Circle’s 2027 adjusted EBITDA at $699 million, below the consensus estimate of $907 million, noting that Circle’s USDC distribution agreement with Coinbase faces renegotiation in August amid competitive pressures.