Woofun AI reports that the probability of the Strait of Hormuz closing by August 31 has climbed to 21% on Polymarket, rising from a low of 11% earlier in the week. The likelihood of closure by September 30 briefly reached 26%.

This shift follows an announcement by Yemen's Houthi group, Ansar Allah, declaring a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia to disrupt crude oil exports, citing "an eye for an eye" principles. The affected routes handle over 4.5 million barrels of crude daily. Contract resolution depends on IMF PortWatch maritime data, with a "yes" outcome triggered if the 7-day moving average of ship arrivals drops to 10 or below.