Woofun AI notes that Citrini analyst Jukan argues China's open-source AI boom currently strengthens NVIDIA's dominance. Models like DeepSeek V4 and Kimi K3 are trained on NVIDIA GPUs and optimized for its hardware, making NVIDIA the preferred inference platform over TPUs or Trainium. This dynamic protects NVIDIA's moat by securing its inference market lead and discouraging cloud providers from developing replacement ASICs, while benefiting Neocloud providers with sustained demand.

Jukan identifies long-term compute independence as the primary structural risk. If China eliminates reliance on NVIDIA, the company would face weakened dominance, enhanced competitiveness for alternatives like TPUs, and significant damage to its Neocloud ecosystem strategy.