Fed Rate Hike Probability Nears 38% Amid Oil, Yield, and Dollar Pressure
2026-07-24 00:34

Woofun AI data shows that macroeconomic indicators are exerting triple pressure on markets, with crude oil reaching $100 per barrel, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbing above 4.7%, and the U.S. Dollar Index rising past 101. These factors are elevating inflation expectations, compressing equity valuations, and tightening global liquidity conditions.

Market pricing reflects a 37.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s meeting on July 30, while the chance of rates remaining unchanged stands at 62.1%. A rate cut is currently priced out of the market ahead of the decision announcement at 02:00 AM Beijing time.

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