Woofun AI data shows that address 0xe639e410 invested $30.5k in Polymarket on the outcome of a potential 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate hike following the July 2026 meeting. This trader, who holds a 76% win rate across 207 settled political trades, increased the 'Yes' probability from 3.9% to 24.8% within a week, placing a bet 385.7 times the median historical amount for similar odds.

Brent crude oil briefly hit $102 per barrel after a Houthi attack on a Saudi tanker, escalating risks in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. While Fed officials have cited energy supply shocks and tariffs as inflationary risks, with one-year-ahead inflation expectations rising to 3.7%, the base case remains no rate hike. June CPI data showed inflation at 3.5% year-on-year, and a poll of 104 economists unanimously expects the Fed to hold rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%.