Woofun AI data shows that the probability of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran by August 31 has decreased by 3% over the past week, settling at 51%. The odds for an earlier resolution by August 14 have also declined by 1% to 34%. Market resolution requires a consecutive 14-day period without qualifying US military actions, defined as airstrikes or missile attacks on Iranian territory. Current geopolitical conditions remain tense, with US forces conducting strikes for the 13th consecutive night and Iran rejecting ceasefire proposals. While short-term de-escalation signals are absent, sources indicate growing frustration within the Trump administration regarding war duration, economic impacts, and military casualties.