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Woofun AI reports that Robinhood has introduced a tokenized stock product structured as debt securities providing economic exposure to underlying shares without conferring legal or beneficial rights. Eligible users can trade these tokens 24/7 and deploy them across decentralized finance applications, including lending pools and collateral for trading. The product delivers an estimated 7% annual percentage yield, utilizing lending infrastructure powered by Morpho while securing insurance through Lloyd's of London and RELM against losses from cyber or smart contract exploits. This launch coincides with a broader global expansion strategy, revealing plans to initiate crypto trading in the UK, extend services to Canada following the acquisition of WonderFi, and operate under a newly secured capital markets services license in Singapore.
The company's next significant revenue driver appears to be event contracts, prediction-market products enabling users to wager on outcomes in politics, sports, economics, and other sectors. Data compiled by Woofun AI indicates that approximately 12.3 billion event contracts were traded through June 25. Assuming a take rate of 1 cent per contract, this volume implies roughly $123 million in quarterly revenue before accounting for the final days of June. While crypto trading volumes showed marginal improvement in June, they remained under pressure compared to earlier periods, with institutional activity generating lower take rates than retail trading. Although the comparison remains provisional until Robinhood releases second-quarter earnings, these figures suggest a fundamental shift in how investors should evaluate the company's revenue composition.
Prediction markets have expanded despite facing legal and regulatory hurdles, with Robinhood currently offering event contracts via a partnership with Kalshi, a leading US platform in the category.
A more critical strategic development is Robinhood's attempt to own the underlying infrastructure rather than relying solely on third-party venues. While Uniswap is deploying a dedicated automated market maker on the chain and Pleiades is launching a proprietary automated market maker to serve as a trading venue, Robinhood has generated over $900 million in volume over a recent one-week period on its own platform. This scale provides a clearer route for the company to operate directly in the market, reducing dependence on external partners like Kalshi. Controlling both the consumer interface and the underlying market infrastructure allows a brokerage to capture more economics, set pricing more aggressively, and leverage liquidity from one business segment to strengthen another.
This infrastructure-first approach mirrors the strategy behind Robinhood Chain, where the objective is to move beyond merely offering access to outside markets toward building or aligning with infrastructure that sits beneath the trading activity itself.
However, this strategy does not eliminate risks, as Rothera currently lacks the scale of the biggest prediction-market platforms. Recent volume spikes on Rothera may be partly attributable to temporary demand in sports betting rather than sustained organic growth.
Furthermore, Robinhood's economics could fluctuate significantly depending on whether trades continue to flow through Kalshi, migrate entirely to Rothera, or utilize a mix of both venues. The ability to route app-based event-contract activity through Rothera will be a key variable in determining long-term profitability.
Simultaneously, Robinhood's derivatives expansion in Europe demonstrates a commitment to building a more conventional trading business around advanced products. This expansion equips the company with additional tools to compete against crypto-native exchanges, traditional brokerages, and specialized derivatives venues. It also illustrates how the firm is applying crypto-style trading mechanics, such as perpetual futures and 24-hour market access, to traditional asset classes. By integrating these mechanics, Robinhood aims to reduce dependence on any single market cycle. Historically, crypto trading revenue has been highly volatile, surging during retail-led rallies and contracting when token prices and volumes weaken. Diversifying into perpetual futures, prediction markets, tokenized stocks, and lending products could provide the company with distinct demand drivers that stabilize earnings.
Beyond infrastructure and product diversification, Robinhood is preparing to integrate deeper automation into crypto trading through Agentic Accounts for eligible US users. The firm has already introduced agentic trading for equities and options in the US, and extending this capability to crypto adds another layer to its plan of combining retail access, automation, and multi-asset trading within a single platform. The company frames this product as a method to grant retail traders access to capabilities typically reserved for professional firms. This AI launch aligns with a wider corporate effort to make the platform more active, more global, and more embedded in users' financial lives. During the same event, a Guinness World Records demonstration showcased an AI agent using a Robinhood-branded credit card to purchase items for attendees, highlighting the practical application of these technologies.
For investors, the ultimate test remains whether these new products can generate durable revenue rather than periodic bursts tied to market cycles, product launches, or major events. The shift from relying on volatile crypto trading volumes to capturing fees from prediction markets and tokenized assets represents a structural change in the company's business model. Success will depend on the ability to maintain liquidity and user engagement across these diverse product lines while navigating complex regulatory landscapes in multiple jurisdictions. If executed correctly, this multi-pronged strategy could insulate Robinhood from the extreme volatility that has historically characterized the digital asset sector.