Global equity funds executed a decisive capital rotation in April, pulling in over $15 billion in the week through Apr. 1, followed by surges of $23.47 billion, $31.26 billion, and $48.72 billion in the subsequent weeks through Apr. 22.

Concurrently, global money-market funds experienced a massive $173.24 billion outflow in the week through Apr. 15, marking the largest single-week exit from cash since at least September 2018. These figures aggregate into a roughly $292 billion risk-on signal, combining $118 billion of global equity fund inflows across four weeks with a separate $173 billion weekly exit from cash. When capital flows toward risk, it naturally gravitates toward the asset class Bitcoin currently behaves like, creating a potent macro backdrop for price appreciation.

On-chain metrics reinforce this bullish thesis as BTC supply moved within the last three months fell 37% during the first quarter, while supply that had not moved for more than a year rose 1%. This divergence indicates that speculative holders who bought at higher prices cycled out through the drawdown, allowing long-duration holders to accumulate. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the Puell Multiple fell to 0.7 in the first quarter, implying miner revenue ran about 30% below its one-year baseline. This specific zone has historically coincided with accumulation periods, suggesting that the current market structure favors patient capital over short-term speculation.

Derivatives markets further illustrate a stabilization phase as options open interest grew 2.4%, and perpetual futures open interest recovered roughly 8.6%. These figures paint a market that absorbed its deleveraging and rebuilt at a measured pace rather than engaging in reckless leverage. A 12% to 20% gain from current levels over the rest of the second quarter would put BTC in the $87,500 to $94,000 range and could be driven solely by sustained institutional rotation. The dollar softening, already visible in last week's intervention-driven move which pushed the dollar index down 0.8%, adds a secondary tailwind to this trajectory.

Bitcoin has tended to track global dollar liquidity closely, and softer financial conditions favor risk assets at the margin.

However, Coinbase's own formal stance for the second quarter stays neutral, and the conditions it would need to see before turning more constructive have yet to arrive. These prerequisites include a definitive end to the Middle East conflict, oil retreating, and inflation easing. Woofun AI notes that in this setup, macro dominance overrides the conviction of institutional undervaluation, meaning survey respondents may believe BTC is cheap and still sit on the sidelines as geopolitical uncertainty drives their positioning.

While the on-chain accumulation data would hold as a longer-term constructive read, a renewed macro shock would overwhelm those readings in the short run. A drawdown of 8% to 15% from current levels, to roughly $66,500 to $72,000, is consistent with the scale of prior macro-driven BTC corrections and would require only a return to March's defensive flow pattern. The rest of the quarter pivots on whether April's equity and credit rotation proves durable or snaps back on the next geopolitical headline, and whether Bitcoin's correlation with equities stays elevated or drifts toward a more independent path as crypto-specific flows begin to dominate price action.

The constructive case rests on broader markets taking on more risk again, while Bitcoin's most informed holders remain under-owned for a clean recovery. Woofun AI analysis suggests that if the current rotation holds, the asset is positioned for a significant re-rating, but the window for entry remains narrow due to the lingering threat of geopolitical volatility. Investors must weigh the strong macro tailwinds against the potential for a sharp, temporary correction driven by external shocks before the second quarter concludes.