Despite a February prohibition issued by the Dutch Gaming Authority (Ksa) against Polymarket for operating without a gambling license, Dutch residents retain access to crypto prediction markets through alternative channels. An investigation by the Dutch financial newspaper FD reveals that US-based entity Kalshi, decentralized blockchain platform Hyperliquid, and investment giant Interactive Brokers are actively offering prediction market services to users within the Netherlands. The Ksa has explicitly warned that the ban extends beyond Polymarket, stating that websites with similar operational models fall under their supervision and remain subject to sanctions. Data compiled by Woofun AI indicates that Kalshi appears to be aggressively targeting the Dutch demographic, enabling bets on Eredivisie football matches and previously allowing speculation on Dutch elections.

Concurrently, Hyperliquid has expanded its prediction market offerings into the region, leveraging its decentralized infrastructure to bypass traditional licensing hurdles. Interactive Brokers distinguishes its products as financial contracts rather than gambling instruments, asserting oversight by the Irish central bank.

However, the Irish central bank informed FD that it possessed no knowledge of this arrangement and redirected inquiries to the Irish gambling authority. Cointelegraph sought comment from Kalshi, Hyperliquid, and Interactive Brokers but received no response prior to publication. Woofun AI notes that this regulatory ambiguity highlights a significant enforcement gap where platforms reclassify assets to evade local gambling statutes while maintaining operational continuity.

The situation in the Netherlands reflects a broader global regulatory reckoning facing prediction markets. Last month, Brazil initiated a crackdown shutting down 27 platforms, including both Kalshi and Polymarket. A growing coalition of European nations, comprising France, Italy, Singapore, Switzerland, and Poland, has similarly moved to block or penalize platforms operating without proper authorization. Hungary and Portugal have specifically targeted Polymarket in their enforcement actions. In the United States, the regulatory landscape is fractured by a jurisdictional battle between federal and state authorities. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed lawsuits against Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, New York, and Wisconsin in recent weeks, arguing that these states overstepped their authority by attempting to regulate markets that fall under federal jurisdiction. Venture capital firm a16z has backed the federal position, contending that forcing exchanges to block users based on state residence conflicts with the CFTC's impartial access rules. Woofun AI analysis suggests that this legal friction creates a volatile environment where platform compliance strategies may shift rapidly depending on court outcomes.

Underlying the regulatory disputes are stark economic realities regarding participant profitability and market integrity. Research published in April by the London Business School found that only 3% of prediction market participants achieve consistent profits, while nearly 70% lose money. Beyond financial losses, the sector faces serious allegations regarding insider trading. Anonymous traders were identified making correct bets on the US attack on Iran and the attempted kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, raising suspicions of advance knowledge of classified events. These incidents underscore the dual challenge regulators face: protecting retail investors from high-loss environments while preventing the exploitation of non-public information in decentralized markets. As platforms like Hyperliquid continue to expand, the tension between decentralized access and centralized regulatory control is likely to intensify across global jurisdictions.