Bitcoin traded near $78,225 after touching an intraday low of $77,711, marking a second consecutive session under significant macro pressure. The asset remains under stress as US Treasury yields stabilize near multi-month highs, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.599% and the 30-year yield climbing 11.8 basis points to 5.131%, its highest level since May 2025. This macro environment has driven BTC down 3.9% from its May 15 opening above $81,000, dragging stocks and bonds lower in a synchronized risk-off move. The $77,700-$78,000 zone, previously identified as the next support shelf after the failure below $82,000, now bears the full weight of this macro test. As a non-yielding asset, Bitcoin now competes directly with a Treasury complex offering yields between 4.5% and 5.1%, raising the opportunity cost of holding the digital asset. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that a two-out-of-three outflow sequence has stripped the ETF buffer from the $78,000 support test precisely when it requires defense, removing the cushion that absorbed earlier macro headwinds.

The live intraday low of $77,716.09 places BTC directly inside this critical support zone, where a daily close back above $78,000 would keep the correction technically contained.

However, a decisive loss of $77,700 opens the next downside sequence, targeting $76,500 as the first follow-through level where bears would confirm the breakdown. If selling pressure persists, the next major target is $75,000, a round-number zone where dip buyers historically must demonstrate conviction to absorb supply. A further extension of this trend would bring the $73,000-$74,000 range into view, a scenario that would reframe the pullback as a macro-driven deleveraging event across all risk assets. Woofun AI notes that the current technical setup hinges on whether the market can stabilize before these lower levels are tested, as the divergence between risk assets and yield-bearing instruments widens.

Reclaiming $80,000 represents the first step toward neutralizing the bearish setup, as a daily close at this level would break the lower-low sequence established over the past two sessions and provide bulls with a technically clean reset. The more challenging objective lies at $82,000, where BTC traded below the 200-day exponential moving average as of May 13, establishing it as both a round-number ceiling and a critical technical checkpoint. A daily close above $82,000 would reframe the $78,000 test as a failed breakdown, effectively turning the yield-driven retreat into a corrective shakeout with the underlying accumulation thesis intact. This recovery path would open room toward the high-$80,000s, signaling that the recent volatility was a temporary liquidity event rather than a structural shift.

Conversely, if BTC closes below $77,700 while Treasury yields hold near 4.60% and ETF outflows persist, the support test will confirm a breakdown. The support at $76,500 serves as the first downside target, where bears would confirm the break and the correction would enter a new leg lower. The macro inputs governing Bitcoin's near-term direction must stabilize before a recovery anchor can form, given that the 10-year yield at 4.599% and the 30-year yield at 5.131% offer holders an income floor of 4.5% to 5.1%. Bitcoin currently sits below this floor on carry due to its non-yielding status, creating a persistent headwind for price appreciation. Woofun AI analysis suggests that without a stabilization in these macro indicators, the asset remains vulnerable to further downside pressure as capital rotates toward higher-yielding fixed income instruments.