The daily chart for FET currently mirrors the technical positioning observed prior to the last significant rally, yet the underlying on-chain data reveals a fundamentally divergent market structure. Price action sits below all three key moving averages, with the SMA100 at $0.2015 acting as the immediate resistance ceiling, positioned $0.0084 above the current trading level. Further overhead pressure is concentrated where the SMA50 at $0.2179 and SMA200 at $0.2232 have converged, creating a dense resistance cluster approximately $0.025 and $0.030 above the asset. All three moving averages are in a downward trajectory, reinforcing the bearish technical bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 39.47, trailing its signal line of 47.17 by 7.70 points, confirming negative momentum that has not yet penetrated the oversold territory below 30 which characterized the launch conditions of the March rally. Woofun AI notes that the full retracement of the March move represents a precise chart statement where every gain has been returned, yet the momentum setup is objectively weaker now than it was at the previous starting point.

The divergence between price levels and on-chain mechanics becomes stark when analyzing exchange flows. Before the March rally, Binance held larger FET reserves with active inflows, but the current environment presents a structurally different dynamic. Data compiled by Woofun AI indicates that over the past week, inflow addresses on Binance collapsed by 92%, while total inflows dropped 71% and netflow decreased by 557%, pushing exchange flows deeply into negative territory. Currently, only 27 inflow addresses remain active, signaling a severe contraction in deposit activity. This 92% drop in depositing addresses generating a 557% swing in netflow suggests the inflow drought is not a broad retail exit but rather the departure of a small number of disproportionately large depositors, leaving the remaining addresses contributing almost nothing to exchange supply relative to the scale of the flow change.

A broader 90-day perspective adds a critical second layer to this supply-side analysis. The Binance reserve has depleted by 20% over the last three months, declining from above 340M tokens in late 2025 to approximately 235M currently. The combination of a 20% reserve depletion over 90 days and this week's 71% inflow collapse indicates that the rate at which the Binance FET reserve shrinks is accelerating even as the absolute reserve size diminishes. This compounding dynamic is understated by simple 90-day averages. Less exchange supply at the same price level means the selling pressure available to push price lower is structurally reduced compared to the conditions present in March. This specific condition of thinning supply was absent before the last rally but is now a defining feature of the current market state.

The tension produced by these two data sources creates a precise but unresolved market narrative. Price remains at the same level as before the March rally, yet momentum is worse, while exchange supply is thinner with inflows near zero. The March rally required both specific conditions to produce its outcome; currently, one condition has improved regarding supply constraints while the other has deteriorated regarding momentum. Woofun AI analysis suggests that the path forward hinges on how these conflicting signals resolve in the immediate term. A daily close above $0.2015 on expanding volume within the next five sessions, accompanied by the RSI crossing back above its signal line, would confirm that the supply thinning is successfully producing the demand response implied by the on-chain setup.

Conversely, a break below $0.185 with the RSI extending toward oversold levels without a recovery would confirm that momentum deterioration is the dominant condition, rendering the supply story insufficient on its own to drive price appreciation. The market is currently testing whether the structural reduction in selling pressure can overcome the lack of bullish momentum indicators. The absence of deeply oversold readings despite a full retracement of gains highlights a fragility in the current price support that was not present during the previous cycle. Investors must weigh the accelerating reserve depletion against the persistent negative momentum to determine if the current setup offers a viable entry point or signals further downside risk.