In November 2022, the launch of ChatGPT overwhelmed servers within hours, marking the first time a technology product attracted 100 million users with such velocity. This event transformed the "AI revolution" from an industry buzzword into a tangible reality driven by OpenAI. Three years later, reports indicate OpenAI is preparing to submit a confidential draft IPO filing to the SEC, targeting a listing as early as September with a valuation exceeding $1 trillion. While Sam Altman has not denied these reports, he recently told employees in a company-wide meeting that submitting an application differs from being ready to list, emphasizing the company will not rush until conditions are right. This contradiction highlights the intense pressure OpenAI faces, where internal hesitation clashes with external market forces demanding immediate action.

The competitive landscape has shifted dramatically over the past 15 months. Anthropic's annual revenue surged from $1 billion to $30 billion, a 30-fold increase, while OpenAI's revenue grew from approximately $20 billion to $25 billion, a 25% rise. By April, Anthropic's annual revenue officially surpassed OpenAI's. In the second quarter, Anthropic projects revenue of around $10.9 billion and an operating profit of approximately $600 million, positioning it to achieve profitability before OpenAI. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows Anthropic's private valuation has reached $1.2 trillion, exceeding OpenAI's own $1 trillion listing target.

Furthermore, Anthropic is also preparing for a potential listing as early as October, prompting Altman to privately express a preference for OpenAI to go public first to maintain market leadership.

Simultaneously, capital competition is intensifying with Elon Musk's SpaceX planning to raise approximately $75 billion through an IPO valued at $1.75 trillion next month, which would be the largest in history. Insiders report significant competition between OpenAI and SpaceX for investor funds. Musk, a former co-founder of OpenAI who left to establish the competitor xAI, remains embroiled in legal disputes with the company. OpenAI estimates it will spend $665 billion on computing power by 2030. Having raised nearly $200 billion to date, the company remains far from its funding goal, making a public offering the only viable path to secure necessary capital. Woofun AI notes that the urgency to secure funds before SpaceX dominates the market is a primary driver for the accelerated timeline.

Internal consensus regarding the IPO pace is fractured. Major investors are surprised by the speed of developments, which deviates from a typical IPO process. OpenAI's CFO, Sarah Friar, appears more cautious about the timing than Altman, signaling genuine internal divisions. Altman himself acknowledged in the company-wide meeting that SpaceX's upcoming listing and the global economic situation are key external factors influencing the decision. Consequently, even leadership remains uncertain if the September window will open, suggesting the company is being forced to move rather than acting from a position of strategic confidence. The situation resembles a scenario where external pressures dictate the trajectory, leaving the company unsure of its final destination.

The narrative OpenAI presents to the public market is becoming increasingly difficult to justify. While ChatGPT established a strong brand advantage in 2022, its share of web traffic has declined from 87% to 68% over the past 12 months. Conversely, Google's Gemini has seen its share rise from 5% to over 18%, with monthly active users increasing from 350 million to 750 million. Google possesses search, Android, and Chrome ecosystems that OpenAI cannot replicate. In the corporate sector, Claude has won approximately 70% of direct head-to-head orders. Despite having fewer users (134 million versus OpenAI's 900 million), Anthropic holds a higher market share (31.4% versus 29%) and generates an average monthly revenue per active user of $16.2, indicating superior commercial efficiency. These losses occur in OpenAI's core operational areas, challenging its growth story.

OpenAI's counter-strategy involves betting on the AI Agent economy, positioning its models as the operating system for a new era of human-machine interaction. The projected $28 billion in revenue for 2030 represents only a fraction of this potential.

However, this logic requires sustained growth across consumer, corporate, and developer ecosystems. With competitors accelerating and OpenAI's growth rate at 25%, reaching $28 billion from $25 billion in four years implies an annual compound growth rate of 65%, a figure the public market will scrutinize heavily. Woofun AI analysis suggests that once the S-1 filing is public, details regarding losses, cost structures, Microsoft dependency clauses, and the assumptions behind the $28 billion forecast will be exposed, replacing opaque private valuations with rigorous public scrutiny.

The public market will demand clear answers on profitability timelines and valuation justification. Altman's assertion that conditions are not ripe reflects the understanding that private markets buy stories while public markets buy numbers. OpenAI's current metrics—slowing revenue growth, declining market share, and continued losses—are not ideal for a debut. Yet, the company can no longer afford to wait. As the gap with competitors narrows and SpaceX advances, the pool of available capital shrinks while computing expenses rise monthly. OpenAI finds itself in a position where stopping is as difficult as starting, burdened by the expectation of a $1 trillion valuation despite not being fully prepared.

Microsoft stands as the primary beneficiary of this IPO. With a $13.8 billion investment, it holds a 27% stake in OpenAI. A successful $1 trillion listing would yield Microsoft a profit exceeding $270 billion. While the short-term logic for share acquisition is clear, OpenAI will likely seek to reduce its dependence on Microsoft post-IPO, potentially diluting Microsoft's exclusive AI advantages in the medium to long term. NVIDIA, as a major supplier of computing power, will see accelerated spending support GPU demand, though OpenAI's roadmap for developing its own chips remains a long-term consideration. CoreWeave, a computing partner, will also benefit from increased spending. For the A-share AI sector, a successful $1 trillion valuation could boost global industry valuations, whereas a lower price or postponement might pressure the AI bubble narrative. Sam Altman initiated this revolution, but now sits on a tiger that cannot be stopped, with competitors ahead and mounting costs behind.