Mike McGlone, a senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has issued a stark warning that Bitcoin could fall to approximately $10,000, aligning with its long-term average as the crypto market exhibits signs of a broad correction. His analysis highlights a critical breakdown in the historical correlation between cryptocurrencies and equities, a divergence that typically signals underlying weakness within digital assets. Data compiled by Woofun AI indicates that in late May, the crypto market detached from traditional stocks; while the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high, Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies failed to follow suit, suggesting a significant loss of momentum. Another bearish indicator cited is the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index (BGCI), which has fallen below the 2,000 mark, representing roughly half its peak value in 2025. McGlone characterizes the current market environment as a broad 'bubble-deflating phase,' drawing direct parallels to the 2018 correction when Bitcoin lost more than 80% of its value following a similar period of exuberance. A drop to $10,000 would represent a decline of roughly 85% from Bitcoin's all-time high near $69,000.

Despite this bearish outlook, industry analysts argue that a crash to $10,000 is unlikely due to strong and sustained demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs launched by major asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity. These ETFs have attracted billions of dollars in inflows since their approval, creating a new and significant source of buying pressure that did not exist during the 2018 downturn. Proponents of this view contend that institutional demand provides a price floor capable of preventing Bitcoin from revisiting its long-term average. The ETFs have also broadened the investor base, bringing in pension funds, endowments, and other long-term holders who are less likely to panic sell during market downturns. Woofun AI notes that this structural shift in ownership dynamics fundamentally alters the liquidation profile of the asset compared to previous cycles.

This is not the first time McGlone has forecast a drop to $10,000; he made similar predictions in February and April of this year, though Bitcoin has not yet reached that level. The repeated nature of his warnings has led some critics to question the timing of his forecasts, though he maintains that the underlying market dynamics remain fragile. McGlone also identified a recovery to $75,000 as a key turning point. If Bitcoin can reclaim that level, it would signal renewed bullish momentum and potentially invalidate the bearish thesis. Until then, he expects continued downside pressure. For investors, the divergence between crypto and equities serves as a critical signal. Historically, Bitcoin has traded in tandem with risk assets like tech stocks. When that correlation breaks down, it often indicates that the crypto market is facing unique headwinds such as regulatory uncertainty, declining network activity, or waning retail interest.

For the broader financial ecosystem, a sustained Bitcoin decline could impact the profitability of mining companies, reduce trading volumes on exchanges, and slow the pace of institutional adoption.

However, the presence of spot ETFs provides a structural support that may cushion the fall. While Mike McGlone's bearish forecast for Bitcoin is grounded in historical patterns and current market data, the emergence of spot Bitcoin ETFs introduces a new variable that could alter the trajectory. Investors should weigh both the technical warning signs and the structural demand from institutional products. Woofun AI analysis suggests that the $75,000 level remains a critical threshold to watch for any sign of recovery, serving as the definitive pivot point between a prolonged correction and a renewed bull run.