The financial markets are preparing for the largest initial public offering in history as SpaceX moves forward with plans to raise nearly $75 billion. This listing aims to push the company's valuation to approximately $1.77 trillion, a figure that could potentially make 马斯克 the world's first trillionaire. The foundation of this massive capital event is not traditional financial fundamentals, but rather a carefully cultivated belief among retail investors. According to reports, shares are expected to be officially listed on Friday with a target issue price of $135 per share. In a strategic deviation from industry norms where retail allocation typically ranges from 5% to 7%, 马斯克 has reserved approximately 20% or more of the IPO shares for individual investors. Major brokerage firms anticipate that subscription demand will vastly exceed supply.

Concurrently, NASDAQ has agreed to a fast-track process, permitting inclusion in the NASDAQ 100 index just 15 trading days after listing, whereas the S&P 500 index rejected a similar application on Thursday citing strict profitability requirements.

The central contradiction of this offering lies in the stark disparity between financial performance and market valuation. SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.9 billion last year, with losses expanding further in the first quarter of the current year. Based on the target issue price, the company commands a price-to-sales ratio of approximately 93.6 times, which dwarfs the S&P 500 average of around 3.3 times. This exorbitant valuation is underpinned by 马斯克's visionary narratives regarding interstellar migration and artificial intelligence rather than current earnings. The NASDAQ fast-track inclusion ensures that SpaceX shares will almost immediately enter various index funds held by tens of millions of American households.

However, the phased unlocking of restricted shares means more equity will enter the market earlier than usual, potentially exerting downward pressure on the stock price. Professional investors warn that the unprecedented enthusiasm from retail participants is fueling conditions for extreme volatility post-listing.

Over the past five years, retail investors have evolved from market peripherals to a decisive force in price determination. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that total trading volume in retail stocks and options reached record highs in May.

This shift has deep historical roots, beginning in 2013 when Robinhood launched a commission-free trading app, lowering barriers to entry. The pandemic era, characterized by home isolation and government subsidies, catalyzed a new generation of day traders, leading to the 'meme stock' phenomenon where assets like GameStop were driven to astonishing levels. Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood, noted that while issuers once had to be persuaded to allocate shares, now almost every major IPO is available on the platform. Following the public release of the SpaceX prospectus on May 20, visits to the IPO page on Charles Schwab's website tripled immediately. Mike Treacy, chief market analyst at Apex Fintech Solutions, characterized the current environment as a 'perfect storm of retail investor frenzy.'

马斯克 possesses a distinct ability to harness this retail enthusiasm, a strategy previously evident at Tesla where retail investors hold approximately one-third of shares. This collective belief propelled Tesla's market value beyond the combined total of the world's 30 largest automobile manufacturers, despite Tesla ranking only 12th in US sales. To replicate this success, entry barriers for the SpaceX IPO have been significantly lowered. While Fidelity typically requires an account balance between $100,000 and $500,000 for IPO participation, the threshold for this specific offering has been reduced to $2,000. Robinhood similarly does not mandate a minimum account balance. Financial institutions are actively capitalizing on this momentum; the Houston branch of Merrill Lynch recently held a client briefing for the SpaceX IPO, distributing branded baseball caps to attendees.

The discrepancy between SpaceX's financial reality and its market assignment remains striking. Last year's revenue stood at $18.7 billion against a net loss of $4.9 billion, with the deficit widening in the first quarter. At the $135 per share target, the valuation hits $1.77 trillion, yielding a price-to-sales ratio of 93.6 times compared to the S&P 500's 3.3 times. The core logic driving this valuation is future-oriented. An analysis by Morgan Stanley predicts SpaceX revenue could reach $3.4 trillion by 2040. Many Wall Street observers note that retail investors are less concerned with price-earnings ratios or cash flow analyses and more captivated by 马斯克's long-term vision involving rockets, robots, AI, and space data centers. Deen Noory, a fintech entrepreneur, confirmed plans to purchase shares on listing day, citing the reduced waiting period for index inclusion as a key factor.

The S&P 500's rejection of the listing underscores the tension between growth narratives and profitability mandates, as SpaceX's $4.9 billion net loss currently disqualifies it from the index.

Furthermore, the phased unlocking of restricted shares introduces additional supply pressure, a deviation from standard IPO structures. The broader market environment adds another layer of instability; a sharp reversal in semiconductor stocks recently caused the NASDAQ Composite Index to fall by 4.2% in a single day, marking the largest one-day decline in over a year. During its two decades of private operation, SpaceX attracted heavy investment from major asset management companies and mutual funds, seeing its valuation increase by more than 2,000% in recent years. Critics argue that the era of easy appreciation has ended, and institutional investors are now seeking exits. Dave Nadig, a senior fund analyst, advised retail investors to avoid the stock, predicting extreme volatility. Historical data collected by Jay Ritter indicates that approximately one-quarter of IPO stocks lose at least half their value within three years. While some investors like Randal Brown remain convinced that 马斯克's involvement guarantees success, others like Josh Hill plan to wait for price corrections before entering the market.