Deutsche Bank analysis suggests that gold prices face significant divergence depending on Federal Reserve policy trajectories. A return to monetary tightening could exert downward pressure, potentially driving spot prices to approximately $3,800 per ounce. Conversely, the institution maintains a constructive baseline projection, anticipating gold to appreciate to roughly $4,300 per ounce by the third quarter. This upward momentum is expected to persist into the fourth quarter, with targets reaching approximately $4,800 per ounce.