Woofun AI reports that Bitcoin supply held by long-term investors has surged to a record 14.7 million BTC, a metric Cory Klippsten, CEO of Swan Bitcoin, interprets as a definitive signal for an imminent market bottom. Klippsten emphasized that this accumulation level represents an all-time high for addresses holding Bitcoin for extended periods, a historical pattern that has consistently marked cycle lows. The data indicates that seasoned investors are demonstrating unwavering conviction, refusing to sell at current price levels despite recent market volatility. This behavior suggests that the market may find its floor significantly earlier than traditional cycle models would predict, driven by the aggressive accumulation strategies of these long-term holders.

The supply figure of 14.7 million BTC was confirmed on Wednesday by crypto analytics platform Glassnode, which noted the milestone as a clear indicator of sustained confidence among veteran participants. Klippsten argued that these figures fundamentally alter the timeline for the next market recovery, positing that the cycle bottom could arrive sooner than in previous iterations. This outlook stands in sharp contrast to the bearish timeline proposed by Jiang Zhuoer, founder of Lebit Mining Pool, who forecasts a much later bottom occurring between October and December 2026. Zhuoer's analysis relies on the performance of Strategy's Multiple to Net Asset Value (mNAV), a metric comparing a company's stock market value against the intrinsic value of its treasury holdings. He noted that MSTR's mNAV has already declined to 0.72, nearing the historic low of 0.7 recorded on May 11, 2022. Based on this correlation, Zhuoer predicts that Bitcoin will bottom approximately six months after Strategy's mNAV finds its cycle low, potentially driving prices down to a range between $42,000 and $44,000. Both analytical frameworks, despite their divergent timelines, agree that Bitcoin's price may descend further, creating cheaper entry points for new capital.

Accumulation activity by long-term holders resumed at the end of 2025, occurring nearly two months after the massive $19 billion liquidation event that shook the market in early October. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the supply of Bitcoin held by this cohort reached 16.65 million BTC at the time of publication, representing a 14% increase from the 14.6 million BTC recorded on Nov. 26. Coinglass, the data provider tracking these movements, defines long-term holders as addresses that have retained Bitcoin for at least 155 days. The rapid increase in this specific cohort is widely interpreted as a strong signal of confidence in Bitcoin's future value, reflecting a strategic reluctance to liquidate positions at current market prices. This accumulation trend suggests that the market structure is shifting toward a supply shock, where selling pressure from long-term holders is minimal.

Beyond on-chain metrics, regulatory developments remain a critical variable influencing Bitcoin's price trajectory, particularly the uncertainty surrounding the passage of the CLARITY Act. Grayscale, a leading crypto-focused asset manager, highlighted that legislative delays could force Strategy and other treasury companies to continue deleveraging their positions. Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, wrote in a Friday report that if the CLARITY Act fails to pass this year, the resulting pressure could cause Bitcoin to fall moderately further. This regulatory risk adds a layer of complexity to the price predictions, as corporate balance sheets may react negatively to prolonged legislative gridlock. The potential for further deleveraging by major corporate holders could temporarily suppress prices even as long-term individual investors continue to accumulate.

The legislative outlook has dimmed significantly, with Galaxy Digital cutting its odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50%. The firm warned that the US Senate is running out of time to advance the crypto market structure bill before its scheduled August recess. The legislation is set for a House of Representatives committee hearing on July 17, a critical juncture that will determine its immediate fate. The bill aims to establish the first comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets in the US, yet it has faced substantial pushback from the banking industry. Critics within the financial sector oppose provisions allowing yield on stablecoin holdings, viewing them as a threat to traditional banking models. This opposition creates a significant hurdle for the bill's passage, potentially extending the period of regulatory uncertainty. The interplay between corporate deleveraging risks and legislative delays suggests that while long-term holders are confident, the broader market may face additional headwinds before a sustained recovery begins. This divergence between on-chain accumulation and regulatory stagnation marks a unique phase in the current market cycle.