Woofun AI reports that a rare on-chain divergence has emerged within Bitcoin, characterized by weakening spot demand alongside resilient miner operations. Data compiled by CryptoQuant, alongside insights from ScenarioX, thechessONCHAIN, and the Puell Multiple metric, reveals that market accumulation pressure is decoupling from network fundamentals.

The 30-day Spot Demand indicator illustrates this retreat, recovering near -80,000 BTC in early July before plunging toward -170,000 BTC. Analyst ScenarioX characterizes the current structure as fragile, noting that price stability is currently sustained by derivatives activity rather than robust spot accumulation. Short covering has temporarily limited downside pressure as traders close bearish positions, yet such movements typically require fresh spot demand to sustain an advance. Without stronger buyer participation, the market risks renewed volatility once derivatives positions rebalance.

Notably, long-term holders are also absorbing significant pain. Bitcoin’s oldest whale group recorded $297.3 million in realized losses on July 14, marking one of the largest loss events for this cohort in the current cycle. While this selling pressure adds to market stress, it has not yet triggered the miner capitulation observed in previous downturns.

Per Woofun AI, the Puell Multiple presents a contrasting narrative of miner health. CryptoQuant contributor thechessONCHAIN noted that the current cycle low reached 0.53, the highest bottom recorded since 2018. The metric currently sits near 0.84, significantly above previous cycle lows of 0.28 in December 2018, 0.35 in July 2022, and 0.49 in September 2024. These rising floors indicate that miners are facing less severe economic pressure compared to earlier market declines.

However, improved miner indicators do not guarantee an immediate price recovery. Historical data shows that Puell readings below 0.65 often preceded gains, but not every occurrence resulted in instant rallies. The July 2022 period demonstrated that miner metrics can improve well before prices fully recover, suggesting caution remains warranted despite the resilient infrastructure.