Crypto markets registered modest gains on Monday as geopolitical tensions eased following the arrival of Iranian negotiators in Doha for critical talks. Bitcoin climbed 1.6% in 24 hours to reach $77,500, while ether advanced 1.4% and the broader CoinDesk 20 index added 1.56%. This price action correlates directly with a sharp revision in risk sentiment across prediction platforms. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that traders on Polymarket adjusted the probability of a permanent deal occurring this month to 37%, a significant increase from roughly 14% recorded on Friday. The market has since absorbed approximately $178 million in trading volume as participants price in the potential for de-escalation.

The trajectory of these odds extends beyond the immediate term, with current models projecting a 46% chance of an agreement by early June and a 72% probability by the end of July.

This shift follows a Saturday post on Truth Social by President Trump stating that the framework agreement remains subject to finalization. The diplomatic momentum was physically manifested earlier today as Iran's chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati arrived in Doha. Per CNN, a diplomat briefed on the visit confirmed that the agenda prioritizes the Strait of Hormuz and issues regarding highly enriched uranium.

Iran's foreign ministry has characterized the current negotiations as a memorandum of understanding for a first phase, with broader discussions expected to span 30 to 60 days, s. Pakistan and Qatar are serving as mediators in these high-stakes talks. The Strait of Hormuz has faced a largely effective blockade since the U.S. and Israel conducted strikes on Iran on February 28, though maritime traffic has partially resumed in recent days. Woofun AI notes that the resumption of trade routes is a critical variable influencing the broader commodity landscape alongside digital assets.

Traditional markets reacted swiftly to the de-escalation narrative, with crude oil prices dropping 5.4% to $91.30 per barrel as supply fears receded. Conversely, gold rose 1.35% to $4,570 per ounce, reflecting a complex interplay between risk-on sentiment and persistent safe-haven demand. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) weakened by approximately 0.3%, suggesting a flight from the dollar as geopolitical uncertainty diminished. Despite the positive momentum, the path to a finalized accord remains contingent on specific terms.

President Trump's tone remains strictly conditional regarding the outcome of these negotiations. He wrote on Monday that the result will be either a Great Deal for all or no Deal at all, warning that failure would lead back to the battlefront with conflict bigger and stronger than ever before. Woofun AI analysis suggests that while current market pricing favors a diplomatic resolution, the volatility inherent in these conditional statements keeps the risk premium elevated for both crypto and traditional energy sectors. The coming weeks will determine whether the current optimism translates into a sustained structural shift or merely a temporary relief rally.