Bitcoin BTC is trading at $63,729.63 after shedding 14% over the past seven days, a decline that has pushed prices to levels unseen since the February crash. Broader crypto markets have suffered equally severe losses, with most analysts warning that further deterioration is likely if BTC breaches the critical $60,000 threshold. Amid this prevailing pessimism, Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, presents a contrarian view, asserting that the market low is nearly established. His thesis relies on three specific structural pillars that suggest the worst of the selling pressure has already been absorbed by the market.

The first pillar centers on the operational patterns of Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy. Kendrick points to the firm's behavior in December 2022, when it sold BTC only to buy back significantly more volume two days later. Following a recent sale of 32 BTC last week, Kendrick anticipates a similar reversal where the firm could potentially acquire up to 100 times that amount. He noted in an email that confirmation of such a move next Monday would serve as a tentative signal that the market bottom has been reached. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that historical accumulation patterns by major corporate treasuries often precede significant price recoveries, reinforcing the weight of this potential indicator.

The second pillar addresses the resilience of U.S. spot ETF holdings despite recent volatility. While the 11 listed spot ETFs have experienced a net outflow of $5 billion over the past three weeks, a broader analysis reveals that cumulative holdings remain remarkably stable. Since their inception in early 2024, the cumulative net inflow has returned to $54.2 billion, matching levels seen earlier in the year. Kendrick observed that holdings rose from 682k to a peak before settling back to 674k, a range he describes as broadly unchanged. This stability indicates that ETF holdings are structurally stronger than feared during the February downturn, suggesting institutional demand remains intact despite short-term profit-taking.

The third pillar involves the status of leveraged positions within the derivatives market. Exchanges have liquidated bitcoin futures bets totaling $1.5 billion, a figure comparable to liquidation volumes seen in January. With BTC already underperforming equities significantly this year, the remaining pool of leveraged longs available for liquidation has diminished substantially. Woofun AI notes that the exhaustion of these leveraged positions typically reduces the immediate downside risk, as there are fewer forced sellers left to drive prices lower. This clearing of leverage suggests that the market has purged a significant portion of its speculative overhang.

Despite these bullish indicators, Kendrick emphasizes that predicting an exact bottom involves too many conditional variables.

However, his assessment concludes that accumulating assets at current levels makes more strategic sense than waiting for absolute certainty. He projects that by the end of 2026, with BTC potentially reaching $100k and ETH at $4k, the current price zone will be viewed as the ideal buying opportunity. The weekly bitcoin price chart supports this narrative, showing the asset trading close to its 200-week simple moving average, a technical level historically associated with the conclusion of bear markets.

Historical data indicates that previous bear markets ended near this 200-week moving average, as highlighted by green arrows on technical charts. If past patterns serve as a reliable guide, the market bottom may occur soon. Woofun AI analysis suggests that while past performance does not guarantee future results, the convergence of corporate buyback potential, stable ETF structures, and cleared leverage creates a high-probability setup for a market reversal. Investors are advised to remain alert to these structural shifts as the market navigates its final stages of correction.